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TO:       Interested Parties
FROM:  Remington Research Group
RE:        New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District GOP Primary Survey
DATE:    August 26, 2021

 

 

KEY POLL FINDINGS:  GOP PRIMARY IS EXTREMELY COMPETITIVE

 

The data in the latest polling conducted by Remington Research Group shows that the GOP primary for New Hampshire’s First Congressional District is extremely competitive. Below are image tests, a ballot comprised of those with opinions of both Karoline Leavitt and Matt Mowers, a blind ballot, campaign simulated ballots, and data regarding the 2020 Election.

 

CANDIDATE IMAGES

 

Upon examining the results for Karoline Leavitt and Matt Mowers, we can see that a significant majority of the electorate has no opinion of either candidate. This is expected for Karoline Leavitt as she has been in the race for a month and has not made significant expenditures on advertising. Notably, 60% of the electorate has no opinion of Matt Mowers, who has been campaigning for 3 years and spent nearly $2 million on advertising over the course of this time.

 

Q: What is your opinion of Karoline Leavitt?

 

Favorable: 8%

Unfavorable: 6%

No opinion: 86%

 

Q: What is your opinion of Matt Mowers?

 

Favorable: 32%

Unfavorable: 9%

No opinion: 59%

 

BALLOTS

 

In addition to a blind ballot and campaign simulated ballot, this poll examined a ballot that only accounted for respondents who had an opinion of both Karoline Leavitt and Matt Mowers, which shows that when voters know both Leavitt and Mowers, they overwhelmingly favor Leavitt.

 

BALLOT COMPRISED OF THOSE WITH OPINIONS OF BOTH LEAVITT AND MOWERS

 

Q: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Congress are Julian Acciard, Tim Baxter, Karoline Leavitt, Matt Mowers, and Gilead Towne. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

 

Julian Acciard: 14%

Tim Baxter: 0%

Karoline Leavitt: 34%

Matt Mowers: 33%

Gilead Towne: 3%

Undecided: 17%

 

BLIND BALLOT

Q: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Congress are Julian Acciard, Tim Baxter, Karoline Leavitt, Matt Mowers, and Gilead Towne. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

 

Julian Acciard: 1%

Tim Baxter: 3%

Karoline Leavitt: 7%

Matt Mowers: 29%

Gilead Towne: 1%

Undecided: 59%

CAMPAIGN SIMULATED BALLOT

 

Q: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Congress are Julian Acciard, Tim Baxter, Karoline Leavitt, Matt Mowers, and Gilead Towne. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

 

Julian Acciard: 2%

Tim Baxter: 2%

Karoline Leavitt: 45%

Matt Mowers: 14%

Gilead Towne: 0%

Undecided: 37%

 

ELECTION INTEGRITY

 

As expected, GOP primary voters rightly believe the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen from President Trump by a 35 point margin.

 

Q: Do you believe Joe Biden won the 2020 Presidential Election fairly, or do you believe the election was stolen from Donald Trump?

 

Biden won: 25%

Election stolen: 60%

Not sure: 15%

ADDITIONAL IMAGES

 

Q: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

 

Favorable: 75%

Unfavorable: 18%

No opinion: 6%

 

Q: What is your opinion of Chris Sununu?

 

Favorable: 81%

Unfavorable: 9%

No opinion: 10%


METHODOLOGY

 

Survey conducted August 24 through August 25, 2021. 498 likely 2022 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.